At this moment in time, there are only three power blocks of any consequence in the world; China, Russia and America. China is walking a tightrope between allowing a limited form of capitalism to make it prosperous while at the same time keeping a strict Soviet style grip on its population. Russia is a populist dictatorship which is definitely over the fall of the USSR and is back big time. America is being run by an incompetent shadowy cabal with their hand up the ass of a senile puppet president. Get offended if you want but the reality is everyone else is merely a spear carrier on the world’s geo-political stage.
If there were only two super powers, there’s nothing much to play for. Whatever move one makes, it’ll always end up in some sort of stalemate because every move has a simple counter-move. With three, there’s lots of moves you can make to play one off against the other but the golden rule has to be to never make a political blunder that pushes the other two power blocks together to gang up on you. Two against one is a recipe for disaster every time.
The Biden administration has just made that blunder.
Their handling of the Ukraine situation has been nothing short of disastrous. The West broke its word to Russia that the eastwards creep of NATO would stop. It didn’t and the latest candidate for NATO was going to be the Ukraine. Putin or any other Russian leader allowing a combined army of its enemies to be camped on its border? That was intolerable and couldn’t be allowed to happen. In the current hysterical situation, the perennially neutral Sweden and even Finland are talking about joining NATO. If Finland wants another Winter War with Russia, that’s the way to go about it.
All that was needed to be done to defuse the whole Ukraine crisis was for America, who actually run NATO because they actually foot the bill, to announce the Ukraine would not become a member of the alliance. Instant end of problem but instead America tried to bully and intimidate Russia with various threats of dire sanctions. Putin is a populist and a fierce nationalist who’d never allow Mother Russia to appear to be humiliated by American threats. Don’t let fake news spin you about how he’s viewed at home. He’s extremely popular and already led Russia through several wars, all of which he’s won. That’s a track record none of the powers currently inciting violence against Russia can boast of recently.
As for those dreadful sounding sanctions, it’s wake up call time lieblings, Russia has effectively been under continuous sanctions since 1917 and has long ago found their way around them. Dire threats of excluding them from the SWIFT funds transfer system sound great in the headlines but Russia long ago set up equivalent systems that most foreigners who do big business with Russia are obliged to use anyway. Basically, the sanctions announced by various countries are a joke. I’ll bet things like Russia being excluded from the Eurovision Song Contest really gave Putin pause for thought.
It’s all a great PR show to sabre rattle while actually making damn sure not to get pulled into a real shooting war with Russia in the manner of the assassination of the Archduke Ferdinand in 1914. Even the perpetually neutral Switzerland has got sucked into the righteous whirlpool of indignation and decided to ban Russian commercial aircraft from its airspace.
What’s not being reported by fake news is that Russia is doing its usual tit for tat retaliation for each of these “sanctions”. Not only have Swiss flights into Russia been banned, but they’re no longer allowed to use the Russian payment systems, so the usual transfers of shady money through Switzerland are now having to be done using suitcases of cash or run the risk of facing scrutiny in the SWIFT system. The banks in the Cayman Islands are no doubt anticipating an unexpected uptick in their business.
A token UN Security Council motion to censure Russia over the Ukraine invasion gets vetoed by Russia because they’re standing members of it and guess what, China abstains. Biden flies home to Delaware for a weekend off whereas Putin flies down to meet the Chinese president for an unscheduled little tête-à-tête about goodness knows what but I’d bet Taiwan figured prominently in their discussions. ie You support me gobbling up the Ukraine and I’ll do the same when you make your move on Taiwan.
Anything that embarrasses or humiliates America works well for China who quite rightly consider it their biggest threat. Putin is doing that job for them so it only makes sense to encourage and support him. Add in the fact that Russia is the world’s third biggest producer of gas, the one commodity China’s short on, and it’s no surprise to see them cosying up. Does anyone else smell a deal has been done?
The battle cry is sanction Russia from all sides, sanction anything you want but FFS do nothing that threatens his supplying us with gas. A gallon of gas is already costing 5.5 USD a pop but you can expect to see it go a lot higher as Putin slowly starts to pinch off the supply tap while making shed loads of money from the spot market. Too many European countries like German have allowed themselves to become totally dependent on Russian gas, which is why these supposedly ferocious sanctions are basically token. In the space of a year, America has gone from being energy independent to relying on Vladimir Putin to keep energy prices low by increasing production. He won’t oblige.
Inflation? You ain’t seen nothing yet.
As for the supposed havoc these sanctions are wreaking on Russia, forget about it. The Russians know how to take pain and then give it back in spades. The consensus estimate of Russian deaths in WWII is 20 million, and when you bear in mind that before unleashing Operation Barbarossa on Russia, Hitler told his generals this was not to be a war of conquest but a war of extermination. The Wehrmacht rolling into a village and killing everyone in it was SOP. Putin is very much a once removed product of the survivors of that inferno with many family members who died fighting for the Rodina in the Great Patriotic War against the Nazis.
I don’t wish to take anything away from the bravery or fortitude of the allies on the western front, but by the time they arrived in Normandy, the Russians had already taken the pain and losses but they eventually lifted the Wehrmacht high into the air and then broke its back over their knee. By D-day, the Russians were already well on their way to Berlin. Picking a war with a people who can take 20 million casualties and still win? Good luck with that one, you’ll need it.
Forget all the rubbish you’re hearing about Russia, the Ukraine, Putin and defending democracy. The Ukraine is actually your usual shitty run of the mill dictatorship with political opponents of the regime safely imprisoned and opposition media closed down. Sounds a bit like what Trudeau did to Canada recently.
Here’s Putin, who’s actually a very accomplished individual despite what you’re hearing, playing a grand piano while waiting for a meeting with Premier Xi of China. The irony of course is the song he’s playing is supposedly “Oh, Canada” while Trudeau was busy criminalising the truckers and anyone who supported them by donating a few bucks. So much for defending democracy. He’s running rings around the clowns with their hands up Biden’s ass. In short time, China and shitholes like Iran will soon be following suit.
Does he actually look bothered with the way things are currently going? Wake up and smell the coffee, the threat on Russia’s southern border has just been neutralised and in the wake of the Afghanistan disaster it’s been another massive self-inflicted wound for America. There’s now an increased chance – as I said a month ago – that Taiwan will be the next one.
©Pointman
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